After Nevada, Bernie’s Path to the Nomination Emerges

If you listened to corporate media, the same media that said Bernie never had a chance to begin with, you would think Bernie’s path to the nomination is now closed. Of course it would have been better for Bernie to have won Nevada this past Saturday, but the truth is Bernie did get some very good news out of Nevada.

According to the entrance polls, Bernie won Nevada’s Latino vote by a margin of 53%-45%. The Clinton campaign and the New York Times were quick to reject that, but bear in mind this is coming from a publication which its own editor admitted was dismissive of Bernie, and has continued to be in Clinton’s corner throughout this election. How could Bernie have won the Latino vote, asked the Times, when Hillary carried heavily Hispanic precincts? Simple, answered Nate Silver’s outfit Five Thirty Eight: Latinos who live in ethnically mixed neighborhoods carried the Latino vote for Bernie. Notice that while Team Hillary poo poos the entrance polling data that she lost Latinos, they are quick to point to the same data for their claim that they carried African Americans. In other words, they are cherry picking and spinning, which is not a surprise.

We here try not to do that, which is why we must come clean. In our article prior to the caucuses, we predicted that Hillary Clinton’s “firewall” with non white voters wasn’t real. Well, we were partially wrong, because Black voters went 76-22% for her. However, Bernie did manage to break through in the Latino vote, which makes perfect sense since the median age of Latinos is lower than other ethnic groups, and Bernie has been dominating with younger voters.

So what kind of a path to the nomination can Bernie put together? Nationally, a terrific one, because any candidate who can carry a majority of White and Latino Democrats should beat the one carrying a majority of Black Democrats. This is, after all, how Michael Dukakis beat Jesse Jackson in 1988 to win the nomination. Hillary’s people know this, which is why from now on until Super Tuesday you will hear her mouthpieces in the establishment media tell you that the race is effectively over. Hillary Clinton will attempt to land the knock out punch in seven out of the next 12 states, which have a high percentage of African Americans who participate in the Democratic primary.

Bernie’s Path in Specifics

Simply put, Bernie has got to play to his strengths, which is white liberals, and since the Nevada Caucuses, Latinos. Given all the time in the world, Bernie could no doubt pull even with black Democrats in this race. But the truth is, he only has 10 days, and campaign resources such as money, candidate time and infrastructure are very limited. As a result, he must go where the votes are.

South Carolina – February 27

Forget it. Concede it. Do as much damage control as you can. Bernie will not win there being down in the polls by an average of 24 points, and where over 50% of the electorate is likely to be Black.

Super Tuesday – March 1

A great deal of media attention is being paid to the fact that six of those states are in the South, where African Americans will likely be a significant part of the electorate. What is less frequently mentioned is that five of the remaining states will not. Bernie must consolidate his resources and pull those into his column. Vermont, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Colorado and Oklahoma are all states where Bernie is either ahead in the polling or within striking distance. By concentrating on those states, he makes sure to walk out not only with plenty of delegates, but a talking point for the media that he walked out with five out of 11 victories and effectively split Super Tuesday. Just as importantly, he will be able to raise a ton of money off the back those victories to remain competitive in states beyond. In addition, a sixth state is the most delegate rich prize on this day – Texas. Texas has as many delegates as Georgia and Virginia put together.

This is where Bernie can take solace in the Nevada results, and why Clinton wants so badly to have people believe that she won the Latino vote. The Texas Democratic primary is going to be even more heavily Latino. If Bernie can remain competitive there and snag a very large portion of the delegates, maybe even tie Hillary, he will walk out of Super Tuesday with a great deal of momentum.

After Super Tuesday for the rest of March

In the week following Super Tuesday, there are only two southern states on the schedule (Mississippi and Louisiana), compared to three other non southern states (Kansas, Nebraska and Maine), with a couple of dozen more delegates. This could help Bernie make up some ground with pledged delegates that he may have ceded in the Super Tuesday contest or, in case he comes up just short in the big prize that week – Michigan. While Michigan does have a 14% African American population, Bernie may be able to increase his share among both white and black voters there due to his uncompromising stances on free trade, which have hurt states in the former industrial rust belt. NAFTA is a four letter word in Michigan, and Hillary Clinton must own it because both she and Bill Clinton supported it.

In the week of March 15, Bernie can once again remain competitive in mid-western states like Illinois and Ohio, and use his advantage with the Latino vote to even out the count in Florida, while Hillary concentrates on the southern states of North Carolina and Missouri.

In the final week of March, Bernie has a great schedule. In Arizona, which is not only heavily Latino, but where he actually enjoys establishment support of prominent and influential congressman Raul Grijalva as well as other Latino leaders, he can compete and win there. Finally he is coming across some very demographically friendly states for him like Alaska, where he is polling ahead today, Utah, Idaho and Washington, all caucus states where white liberals dominate. (Don’t ask us what will happen to Hawaii’s caucus because literally nobody knows)

April, May and June

Should he win big in the final week of March, Bernie starts April off with a tailor made state for him like Wisconsin, the birthplace of the progressive movement. Should he carry the momentum, the democratic primary schedule takes the candidates to states which are mostly in the west, Rocky Mountains and the Midwest, whose electorate will favor the groups Bernie has been able to claim thus far, making New York and California the biggest prizes. While Hillary may enjoy some home state advantages in New York, and she does have one more southern state (Kentucky), the remaining states including delegate rich California are where Bernie can not only compete, but run the table.

In Conclusion

Bernie’s path to the nomination is not only plausible, but also very clear. This is why you should look for the corporate media, the establishment, and every other force that favors Hillary Clinton to tell you that the race is over, because the only way Bernie loses is if his supporters begin to believe that, stop donating, stop turning out to vote, and stop volunteering. We as his supporters have to take responsibility for the fact that turnout in Nevada was low, and that is why we lost there. Maintaining the momentum is key, and should Bernie’s army stay strong, it can and will win the day.

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  1. Well said! This battle has barely begun: National polling trajectories show Bernie is on the verge of surpassing Hillary. Meanwhile, their pledged delegates are tied at 51 each, with a whopping 3949 remaining to be won. As Bernie says, “When we stand together, there is nothing we cannot accomplish.”

  2. It’s not receiving any media attention, but the Democratic Caucus in NV has soo many complaints… it wasn’t run ethically… from the casino sites doing counts before registering voters, to lines and problems causing 4+ hour delays. Personally I experienced and witnessed Bernie supporters encouraged to go home without their votes recorded. The recorded voter turn out was far less than actually attended!
    The way the caucus was run, “undecided” votes were worth more for their candidate after speaches were made, but at my caucus site four of the 8 “undecided”, and weighted, voters came wearing Hillary shirts. I’m calling to verify, but the numbers published for my precinct in Las Vegas reported 10 less than was actually counted!

  3. Brilliant article! It’s certainly very encouraging news to look forward after we weather the upcoming storm in South Carolina and Super Tuesday. I’m definitely not giving up on Bernie and will continue donating whatever money I have. 🙂

    • I thought the same thing; grew up in NJ. I remember when she ‘made her way’ into NY as a Senator — how many people were on the news saying ‘She’s not from NY; she doesn’t care about us’. All part of the master plan.

      The thing that *kills* me is how everyone is saying she has ‘the black vote’ — if Bernie’s history was known when he was in his 20s fighting for civil rights — for 50 years now — that might change. Sounds like they’re trying to convince some people.


  5. The most important point made in the article was that Latinos living in non-segregated areas went heavily for Bernie. Consider what this means when we look at the voting record of black women and men. Segregation of blacks in America has been great for the Democrats as isolation obviously leads to fewer channels of communication and and leads to an echo camber effect, much like the Fox-tea party effect in much of white America. Also, isolation as well as poverty generally make people adverse to changes. That being said I would not give up on finding support in the black community. Certainly here in Illinois black people are getting tired of the Democratic establishment and Bernie a year ago campaigned against Emmanuel who will never again win an election here.

  6. It certainly won’t hurt that Bernie is and always was against the trade agreements that stole away so many jobs from people–and helped decimate Unions–from many corners of the country that have yet to participate in the primaries and caucuses. With HRC wrapping herself in her husband’s record–with his trade agreements–and tied herself to President Obama, which causes me to believe she isn’t really against the TPP as she told us, after all, then there are plenty of reasons to believe that Bernie is the candidate who, in all honesty, wants to keep jobs in America.

  7. I was in Nevada as an observer [from CA]. The Bernie rally the night before was packed with young Latino families. They love Bernie.But,the caucus itself was held on Saturday at noon. So who turned out? I attended a caucus with about 10 precincts and was stunned by all the old people. Entire old people homes had turned out, especially, of course, women. And they were loaded for bear–Hillary, Hillary, Hillary. Yes, she took all the precincts I saw but not by much. Many old people are smart enough to love Bernie. The whole NV caucus structure was terrible, anti-democratic and exclusionary. Hate it.

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